STEM shortage debunked
Published, 2018-05-05, Last modified, 2018-08-19
Unemployment statistics are not indication of availability.
If a new college graduate's last (or current) job was as a barista, the Bureau of Labor Statistics counts that person as an unemployed barista, even if that person holds a Ph.D in a STEM discipline. This is also true if a seasoned veteran is displaced by a temporary foreign worker and has had to take a job outside of STEM to survive. The worker's last job determines the occupational classification, regardless to qualifications.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Occupational Employment Statistics (OES), provides STEM employment data-sets. Subtracting the 2016 employment levels (8,775,180), from the 2017 employment levels (8,893,920), we arrive at employment growth of 118,740 in STEM occupations for 2017.[1]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not differentiate occupational data by citizenship status; therefore, employment growth resultant from temporary foreign workers is included in the BLS aggregate totals.
Contents
Science Technology Engineering Math (STEM)
The Bureau of Labor Statics (BLS) STEM definition includes occupations in Science, Technology, Engineering, Math and Computer, and related occupations in Management, Postsecondary teachers and Sales.
US STEM Degree Production vs. STEM Employment Growth:
Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 04 Architecture and Related Services, 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, 14 Engineering, 15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields, 25 Library Science, 26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 27 Mathematics and Statistics, 40 Physical Sciences, 41 Science Technologies/Technicians
Bureau of Labor Statistics STEM Employment
STEM Degree production: Citizens and Permanent ResidentsYear Total Employment Employment Growth Bachelors Degrees Associate Degrees 2013 8,165,520 N/A 325,065 101,473 2014 8,345,870 180,350 341,762 99,473 2015 8,587,580 241,710 356,267 100,429 2016 8,775,180 187,600 N/A N/A 2017 8,893,920 118,740 N/A N/A Averages 182,100 341,031 100,458 See Degree production -- BLS Definitions section for CIP definitions.
- STEM employment growth/loss by NAICS Industry[1]
ExpandBureau of Labor Statistics STEM Employment Growth/Loss 2017
by NAICS Industry
- STEM (SOC) occupations.[1]
ExpandBureau of Labor Statistics STEM Standard Occupational Titles (SOC)
Classification of Instructional Programs
The following tables list the NCES Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP). These details were extracted from the NCES published SOC to CIP crosswalk for 2010.[3]
- In the following tables, there is some overlap of CIPs; for instance, a Computer Science CIP, may also be listed within management or postsecondary teaching occupations.
ExpandScience (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 197 titles
ExpandEngineers (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 103 titles
ExpandMath (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 26 titles
ExpandComputer (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 38 titles
ExpandPostsecondary teachers (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 276 titles
ExpandSales (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 1 title
ExpandManagers (SOC): Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) - 193 titles
- The technology instructional classifications are distributed throughout the SOC occupations -- BLS does not currently maintain a broad category for (STEM) Technology occupations.
Temporary foreign workers (methodology)
There are several temporary employment visa programs that adversely affect citizens and permanent residents in the STEM occupations, in addition, the OPT Extension (a 3 year internship for foreign students) and 144,000 employment based permanent residence visas impact employment. OPT and permanent resident visas are beyond the scope of this document.
H-1B temporary work visas
From the 2017, H-1B Characteristics report, we find that the STEM occupations alone exceed the employer lamented cap of 85,000 visas.[4]
H-1B temporary visas: 2017 Initial Employment Computer-related occupations 69,846 Occupations in Architecture, Engineering and Surveying 10,243 Occupations in Mathematics and Physical Sciences 2,786 Occupations in Life Sciences 1,533 Miscellaneous Professional, Technical and Managerial 1,622 H-1B visa total = 86,030
Effectively, H-1B foreign workers are offered the job first. The H-1B application season is the first week in April, well before US college graduation in June. If the employer pays for H-1B premium processing, USCIS can provide an confirmation or denial for the H-1B petition in as little as two weeks. Premium processing for (FY 2019) is temporarily suspended.[5]
- The H-1B candidate may not enter the US without a job; therefore, United States candidates are relegated to the left over jobs.
L-1 temporary work visas
The L-1 visa is an intra-company visa with an initial term of 3 years. Manager's (L-1A) visas can be extended another 3 years, production employee (L-1B) visas can be extended 2 years.[6] The US Department of State (DOS) publishes data on Nonimmigrant Visas Issued by Classification, but this data does not provide occupational breakdown and may include re-entries.[7]
- From the USCIS H-1B Characteristics reports, we can find the percentage initial employment authorizations issued. In terms of demand and function, L-1 temporary employment visas are virtually identical, so we will distribute the H-1B percentages to estimate the L-1 visa initial authorizations.
Estimate of visas issued vs new employment authorizations (2017) DOS H-1B visas issued 179,049 USCIS H-1B initial approvals 108,101 Percent of H-1B that are new employment authorizations 60.38%
- The Department of State issued 78,178 L-1 visas in 2017, but from our estimate above, only 60.38% of those would qualify as initial employment authorizations, where we arrive at 47,204 initial L-1 employment authorizations. From that percentage of L-1 issued visas, we distribute the same occupational breakdown as the H-1B occupations.
L-1 visas 2017 Initial employment (estimate) %H-1B L-1 Initial STEM visas
(Based on H-1B Characteristics)Computer-related occupations 62.00% 29,266 Occupations in Architecture, Engineering and Surveying 9.80% 4,626 Occupations in Mathematics and Physical Sciences 2.60% 1,227 Occupations in Life Sciences 2.10% 991 Miscellaneous Professional, Technical and Managerial 1.20% 566 L-1 STEM visa totals for 2017 77.70% 36,677
NAFTA professional (TN) visas
Similar to the L-1 visa,[8] we can obtain the NAFTA professional (TN) data for visa issued (16,119), from the Department of State.[7]
- We again extrapolate our findings from the USCIS H-1B data. After we adjust continuing authorizations, the estimate of NAFTA initial employment authorizations at 9,733, or 60.38% of the NAFTA total.
NAFTA professional visas 2017 Initial employment (estimate) %H-1B NAFTA Initial STEM visas
(Based on H-1B Characteristics)Computer-related occupations 62.00% 6,034 Occupations in Architecture, Engineering and Surveying 9.80% 954 Occupations in Mathematics and Physical Sciences 2.60% 253 Occupations in Life Sciences 2.10% 204 Miscellaneous Professional, Technical and Managerial 1.20% 117 NAFTA STEM visa totals for 2017 77.70% 7,562
- Uses the same formulations described in the L-1 temporary work visas section.
O-1 "genius" visa
According to the Department of State, 17,011 visas were issued in the O-1 category, "Person with extraordinary ability in the sciences, art, education, business, or athletics". We have have omitted these counts because these individuals are required to provide proof that they are extraordinarily qualified.[9] Additionally, a large percentage of these recipients are likely to be celebrities, entertainers or professional athletes, the O-1 classification is not comparable to the H-1B visa.
United States educational assets
For this document, we examine three definitions of STEM related degree production for citizens and permanent residents.
- A listing of BLS occupational (6-digit) CIP definitions -- an average of 341,031 STEM bachelors degrees conferred per year.
- The DHS list of eligible OPT Extension (6-digit CIPs) -- an average of 349,213 STEM bachelors degrees conferred per year.
- The 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP) -- an average of 313,767 STEM bachelors degrees conferred per year.
Degree production -- BLS Definitions
From the BLS defined Occupations (SOC) and the related instructional programs (CIP) obtained from the NCES crosswalk. The table below is the first of 3 degree production data-sets. In this table we include Science, Engineering, Math & Computer and exclude Managers, Postsecondary Teachers and Sales.
A three year sample (2013-15) is averaged to determine degrees conferred to citizens and permanent residents. Degree production in this data-set falls between totals found in two other data-sets provided later in this document.
- Degree Production: Bachelors and above (per year) = 424,464
- Degree Production: Associate degree and above (per year) = 524,922
| ExpandBLS Defined: Science, Engineering, Math & Computer Degree Production by CIP Citizens and Permanent Residents |
|---|
OPT STEM Extension CIP list
The OPT STEM Extension, extends the OPT student work authorization from one year to three years for STEM related degree recipients from U.S. colleges.[10] Formally called the Cap Gap extension, the OPT extension was created to allow foreign STEM students to work while attempting to secure an H-1B visa over multiple years. While these foreign students are employed and awaiting adjustment of status (as an F-1 student), their labor is exempt from Social Security contributions, both personally and for the employer. This government subsidy, 12.4% on Social Security and 2.9% on Medicare, makes a non-citizen in STEM OPT status an extremely competitive job candidate.[11]
Federal training program sees 400% increase in foreign students graduating and working in STEM fields from 2008 to 2016
Between 2004 and 2016, the number of foreign student graduates who were approved for the OPT program rivaled the number of high-skilled workers initially approved for the nation’s largest temporary employment visa program, also known as the H-1B visa...[12]— NEIL G. RUIZ AND ABBY BUDIMAN,
Pew Research Center: "Number of Foreign College Students Staying and Working in U.S. After Graduation Surges"
Foreign student (F-1) employment authorization documents (EAD) are beyond the scope of this document, but included is the last three full years of available data.[13]
EADs by Classification and Basis for Eligibility,
Oct. 1, 2012 - June 29, 2017Approvals FY14* Approvals FY15* Approvals FY16** F-1 Pre-completion Optional Practical Training 3,584 3,955 3,351 F-1 Post Optional Practical Training 109,874 132,163 154,120 F-1 STEM students 21,977 28,083 45,184 F-1 International Org. 32 32 47 F-1 Severe Economic Hardship 681 903 1,033 Totals 136,148 165,136 203,735 * Numbers taken from FY16 USCIS Employment Authorization Documents Annual Report to Congress
** Numbers reported by USCIS Office of Performance and Quality
Our second gauge of US degree production comes from the DHS published CIPs, eligible for the STEM Extension.[14]
- The following is a table of the average 628,897 citizen and permanent resident yearly graduates who do not receive the OPT extension subsidy.
- From the DHS STEM designation list, 628,897 degrees are conferred annually, 113,653 associate degrees are included. Arguably, a three year, tax subsidized, internship would go a long way to enhancing the employability of these graduates.
NCES STEM degree production
Provided is National Science Foundation published (NCES colleges) graduation statistic in STEM related curriculums, these exclude temporary residents. The following is the latest 3 years of data available from the National Science Foundation's, WebCASPAR website.[2]
NCES Level of Degree or Other Award, Citizens and Permanent Residents Doctorate degrees Masters degrees Bachelors degrees Associate degrees Year Academic Discipline
2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP)2013 04 Architecture and Related Services 157 6,679 9,211 458 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 870 12,725 49,204 38,608 14 Engineering 4,031 23,263 80,300 3,599 15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 57 3,545 16,122 34,248 25 Library Science 34 6,928 102 193 26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 5,838 11,257 98,844 4,112 27 Mathematics and Statistics 912 4,002 18,412 1,733 40 Physical Sciences 3,337 5,049 26,417 3,851 41 Science Technologies/Technicians 2 32 563 2,264 2014 04 Architecture and Related Services 135 6,240 8,557 400 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 922 13,409 53,311 37,312 14 Engineering 4,380 23,308 85,681 4,094 15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 53 3,504 15,731 32,293 25 Library Science 37 5,771 127 196 26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 6,072 11,780 103,543 4,475 27 Mathematics and Statistics 948 3,927 18,605 2,045 40 Physical Sciences 3,413 4,986 27,679 4,235 41 Science Technologies/Technicians 1 30 489 2,382 2015 04 Architecture and Related Services 160 6,020 8,421 470 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services 912 14,199 56,940 36,097 14 Engineering 4,528 22,563 90,394 4,662 15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields 70 3,541 15,868 32,533 25 Library Science 37 5,190 99 175 26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences 5,880 12,304 108,825 4,859 27 Mathematics and Statistics 900 3,947 19,068 2,602 40 Physical Sciences 3,552 5,013 28,307 4,691 41 Science Technologies/Technicians 3 42 482 2,500 Subtotals 47,241 219,254 941,302 265,087 Yearly average by degree 15,747 73,085 313,767 88,362 Yearly average STEM degree production (Citizens and Permanent residents) = 490,961 Year: 2015, 2014, 2013[2] Academic Discipline, 2-digit Classification of Instructional Program (CIP): 04 Architecture and Related Services, 11 Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services, 14 Engineering, 15 Engineering Technologies and Engineering Related Fields, 25 Library Science, 26 Biological and Biomedical Sciences, 27 Mathematics and Statistics, 40 Physical Sciences, 41 Science Technologies/Technicians Level of Degree or Other Award: Doctorate Degrees, Doctorate Degree-Research/Scholarship, Doctorate Degree-Professional Practice, Doctorate Degree-Other, First Professional Degrees, Master's Degrees, Bachelor's Degrees, Associate's Degrees Citizenship (standardized): U.S. Citizens and Permanent Residents
Conclusion
In conclusion, we don't feel it is wise national policy to dedicate 100% or more of our STEM employment growth to temporary foreign workers.
- Using the exact CIPs derived from the BLS STEM occupations list, average degree production (524,922 yr.), exceeded four times the STEM employment growth for 2017.
- Using the DHS OPT definition of STEM CIPs, used for temporary immigration purposes, average degree production (628,897 yr.) exceeds 5 times the amount of 2017 STEM employment growth in 2017.
- Using the more traditional 2-digit Classification for known STEM CIP groupings, the average degrees conferred (490,961 yr.), exceeded four times the 2017 employment growth.
STEM Employment Opportunity Breakdown for US Workers
(Of the STEM employment growth of 118,740 in 2017)[1]H-1B visa employment share 86,030 72.45% L-1 visa employment share 36,677 30.89% NAFTA visa employment share 7,562 6.37% Total temporary employment visa share 130,269 109.71% US STEM employment share = -11,529
There are several glaring policy questions that come to mind.
- What percentage of an occupation's annual employment growth should be dedicated to temporary foreign workers?
- During recessions, occupational employment levels often go negative, but temporary foreign work visas continue to be awarded to those occupations. Is this fair to United States college students graduating into recession?
- During recession recoveries, should there be a moratorium on temporary foreign work visas, so that citizens and permanent residents are included in the recovery?
- On April 7, 2017, USCIS announced that they had received 199,000 H-1B petitions during the filing period, "including petitions filed for the advanced degree exemption." [15] With a cap of 85,000, on May 3, 2017, USCIS announced, " USCIS will now begin returning all H-1B cap-subject petitions that were not selected." [16] Bloomberg reports that filing fees of $4000.00 are returned with these 114,000 rejected petitions.[17] Of this $465 million in unrealized revenue, a $500.00 Fraud Prevention fee and a $750.00 to $1500.00 ACWIA retraining fee go uncollected.[18] How does USCIS justify depriving US citizens and permanent residents, from these hundreds of millions of dollars worth of protections and retraining funds annually?
Further reading
- "Yoder’s Green-Card Giveaway Will Expand Bias Against U.S. College-Grads, Say American Professionals", by Neil Munro, August 16, 2018.
Epilogue
Review by Neil Munro
- Great page, but we need to subtract the H-1Bs/L-1s who leave. (Many stay in the EB-line, & 70K get GCs). I'd guess this data shows that most entry-level STEM jobs go to visa-workers & EB-GCs. Many entry-level accounting/biz/healthcare degrees go to visa-workers.
- @NeilMunroDC
- 6:16 PM - 27 Sep 2018[1]
- The government does not provide departure data, but over 90% of H-1B are renewed for a second three year term. This report is primarily concerned with one year, 2017.
- The "EB-Line" (Employment based permanent residence), is not an adjustment of status, it is an extension (AC21) of the H-1B or L-1 that allows the non-immigrant to extend beyond the initial six year limitation. Technically, these are still H-1B and L-1 visa holders.
- If most entry level STEM jobs go to visa workers, then we are conferring over 300,000 worthless STEM bachelor's degrees per year to citizens and permanent residents.
- This report focuses on 2017, initial employment approvals for H-1B 77.7% (86,030). Other mentioned occupational classifications for 2017:
- Administrative Specializations = 6.2% (6,711)
- Medicine and Health = 4.4% (4,696)
- Managers and Officials N.E.C.* = 1.3% (1,398)
- This report purposely excluded the OPT extension, aka "H-1B Cap Gap" for foreign STEM students. In addition to the 130,269 H-1B, L-1 and NAFTA workers added in 2017 (110% of employment growth), an additional 45,184 (2016) foreign students entered the U.S. STEM workforce for up to 3 years.
Finally, if we take into consideration that there are 1.5 million Indian nationals backlogged in our employment based green card system since 2004,[19] departures and retirements are not likely to represent a significant portion of these presumably entry level positions.
References
- ↑ Jump up to: 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 "Occupational Employment Statistics: STEM data sets".
- ↑ Jump up to: 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 "WebCASPAR: Integrated Science and Enginering Resources Data System".
- ↑ "SOC 2010 to CIP 2010 Crosswalk".
- ↑ "Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers, Fiscal Year 2017 Annual Report to Congress, October 1, 2016 – September 30, 2017, April 9, 2018" (PDF).
- ↑ "L-1A Intracompany Transferee Executive or Manager".
- ↑ Jump up to: 7.0 7.1 "Table XVI(B) Nonimmigrant Visas Issued by Classification (Including Border Crossing Cards) Fiscal Years 2013-2017" (PDF).
- ↑ "TN NAFTA Professionals".
- ↑ "O-1 Visa: Individuals with Extraordinary Ability or Achievement".
- ↑ "STEM OPT Extension Overview".
- ↑ John Miano. "Immigration Reforms Needed to Protect Skilled American Workers". Center for Immigration Studies. Retrieved 2015-03-17.
- ↑ "Number of Foreign College Students Staying and Working in U.S. After Graduation Surges". Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project. 2018-05-10. Retrieved 2018-05-10.
- ↑ "Did you know that USCIS receives and adjudicates approximately 6 million petitions and applications annually?". USCIS. 2018-03-31. Retrieved 2018-05-12.
- ↑ Jump up to: 14.0 14.1 "DHS: STEM Designated Degree Program List Effective May 10, 2016" (PDF).
- ↑ "USCIS Completes the H-1B Cap Random Selection Process for FY 2018". USCIS. 2017-04-07. Archived from the original on 2018-05-09. Retrieved 2018-05-09.
- ↑ "USCIS Completes Data Entry of Fiscal Year 2018 H-1B Cap Subject Petitions". USCIS. 2017-05-03. Archived from the original on 2018-05-09. Retrieved 2018-05-09. Cite has empty unknown parameter:
|1=(help) - ↑ Francis, Laura D. (2016-03-21). "So You've Lost the H-1B Lottery: Now What?". Legal, Tax, EHS, and HR Expert Information & Analysis. Archived from the original on 2018-05-09. Retrieved 2018-05-09.
- ↑ "H and L Filing Fees for Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker". USCIS. 2015-12-18. Archived from the original on 2018-05-09. Retrieved 2018-05-09.
- ↑ Munro, Neil (2018-09-13). "Rep. Yoder's India Lobby Offers $$$ to Jump Line for Green Cards". Breitbart. Retrieved 2018-10-04.
